Projects/PE Debt Covenant Model
Financial Modeling (Excel)2024

Private Equity Transaction & Debt Covenant Model

Pharma Brands Inc. — Special Dividend Recapitalization

6

Model sheets

$3.25B

Revenue base

5 / 5 ✓

Covenant years

0.0x

Debt/EBITDA exit

97.0x

EBIT/Interest peak

Problem

Pharma Brands Inc. is evaluating a $1B special dividend payment funded by a leveraged recapitalization. The transaction requires a comprehensive financial model to project the company's ability to service new debt (term loan + revolver) while maintaining compliance with restrictive debt covenants over a 5-year horizon.

Approach

Built a fully integrated 6-sheet Excel model: Transaction Summary, Projected Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement, Debt Schedule (term loan + revolver with automatic cash sweep), and RE/Fixed Assets Schedule. Revenue assumptions drive through all statements with dynamic debt paydown from excess cash flow.

Validation

Dual covenant testing: Total Debt/EBITDA (max 3.0x stepping to 1.5x) and EBIT/Interest Coverage (min 6.0x stepping to 12.0x). Both covenants tested across all 5 projected years. Sensitivity tables tested revenue growth and margin assumptions against covenant thresholds.

Output

Model projects full revolver paydown by 2026 ($763M → $0). All debt covenants pass across the entire projection period. Net income grows from $200M to $331M. Cash position rebuilds to $133M by 2026. EBITDA margin improves from 11.0% to 13.0%.

Limitations

Revenue growth assumptions (5% → 4%) and margin improvement targets represent scenario-based inputs, not audited projections. The model does not account for macro shocks, management execution risk, or refinancing risk at debt maturity. Working capital assumptions use simplified DSO/DIO/DPO ratios.

Next Improvements

Monte Carlo simulation on revenue and margin inputs to stress-test covenant compliance across probability distributions. Integration of a dynamic refinancing module to model takeout options at year 3 maturity. Expanding sensitivity analysis to a multi-variable tornado chart.

ExcelFinancial ModelingLBODebt Covenants3-Statement ModelSensitivity AnalysisRecapitalization